| |
@Risk by 
Product Description
 Wouldn’t
you like to know the chances of making money – or taking a loss — on
your next venture? Or the likelihood that your project will finish on
time and within budget? How about the probabilities of finding oil or
gas, and in what amounts?
Everyone would like answers to these types of questions. Armed with
that kind of information, you could take a lot of guesswork out of big
decisions and plan strategies with confidence. With @RISK®, you can
answer these questions and more – right in your Excel spreadsheet.
@RISK (pronounced “at risk”) performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo
simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your spreadsheet
model—and tells you how likely they are to occur. It mathematically and
objectively computes and tracks many different possible future
scenarios, then tells you the probabilities and risks associated with
each different one. This means you can judge which risks to take and
which ones to avoid, allowing for the best decision making under
uncertainty.
@RISK also helps you plan the best risk management strategies through
the integration of RISKOptimizer, which combines Monte Carlo simulation
with the latest solving technology to optimize any spreadsheet with
uncertain values. Using genetic algorithms or OptQuest, along
with @RISK functions, RISKOptimizer can determine the best allocation
of resources, the optimal asset allocation, the most efficient
schedule, and much more.
INDUSTRY
|
SAMPLE APPLICATION
|
FINANCE AND SECURITIES
|
Retirement planning,
Currency valuation, Real options analysis, Discounted Cash Flow
analysis, Value-at-risk, Portfolio optimization
|
INSURANCE / REINSURANCE
|
Loss reserves estimation, Premium pricing
|
OIL / GAS / ENERGY
|
Exploration and production, Oil reserves estimation, Capital project estimation, Pricing, Regulation compliance
|
SIX SIGMA / QUALITY ANALYSIS
|
Manufacturing quality control, Customer service improvement, DMAIC, DFSS / DOE, Lean Six Sigma
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Six Sigma and quality analysis, New product analysis, Production siting, Plant shutdown, Product life cycle analysis
|
PHARMACEUTICALS / MEDICAL / HEALTHCARE
|
New product analysis, R&D estimation, Disease infection estimation
|
ENVIRONMENT
|
Endangered species preservation, Pollution cleanup and projections
|
GOVERNMENT AND DEFENSE
|
Resource allocation, War games, Welfare and budgetary projections
|
AEROSPACE AND TRANSPORTATION
|
Cost estimating, Highway planning and optimization, Supply chain distribution
|
Principal Characteristics
How @RISK Works
Running an analysis with @RISK involves three simple steps:
1. Set Up Your Model. Start
by replacing uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK
probability distribution functions, like Normal, Uniform, or over 50
others. These @RISK functions simply represent a range of different
possible values that a cell could take instead of limiting it to just
one case. Choose your distribution from a graphical gallery, or define
distributions using historical data for a given input. Even combine
distributions with @RISK’s Compound function. Share specific
distribution functions with others using the @RISK Library, or swap out
@RISK functions for colleagues who don’t have @RISK.
Next, select your outputs—the "bottom line" cells whose values interest
you. This could be potential profits, ROI, insurance claims payout,
disease recovery rate, or anything at all.
Define Uncertainty with Ease
@RISK comes with over 50 distribution functions. These are true Excel
functions, behaving the same way as Excel’s native functions and giving
you total modeling flexibility. Choosing which @RISK distribution
function to use is easy because @RISK comes with a graphical
distribution gallery that lets you preview and compare various
distributions before selecting them. You can even set up your
distributions using percentiles as well as standard parameters, and
overlay different distribution graphs for comparison. You can use
historical or industry data and @RISK’s integrated data fitting tool
BestFit® to select the best distribution function and the right
parameters. You can select the type of data to be fit (e.g. continuous.
discrete, or cumulative), filter the data, specify distribution types
to be fit and specify Chi-Squared binning to be used. Fitted
distributions are ranked based on three statistical tests, and may be
compared graphically. You can even overlay graphs of multiple fitted
distributions. Fit results can be linked to @RISK functions, so the
functions will update automatically when input data changes.
Input distributions may be correlated with one another, individually or
in a time series. Correlations are quickly defined in matrices that pop
up over Excel, and a Correlated Time Series can be added in a single
click. A Correlated Time Series is created from a multi-period range
that contains a set of similar distributions in each time period.
All @RISK functions and correlations in your model are summarized—with
thumbnail graphs—in the dashboard-style @RISK Model window, and you can
watch distribution graphs pop up as you browse through cells in your
spreadsheet.
Share Your Model with Others
@RISK functions can be stored in the @RISK Library, a SQL database for
sharing with other @RISK users. @RISK functions may also be removed
with the Function Swap feature, enabling your models be to shared with
colleagues who don’t have @RISK installed. @RISK will keep track of any
changes that occur in the spreadsheet while the @RISK functions were
“swapped out.” You can control how @RISK should update formulas when it
finds changes in the model. In addition, you can have @RISK
automatically swap out functions when a workbook is saved and closed
and automatically swap in if necessary when a workbook is opened.
2. Run the Simulation.
Click the Simulate button and watch. @RISK recalculates your
spreadsheet model thousands of times. Each time, @RISK samples random
values from the @RISK functions you entered, places them in your model,
and records the resulting outcome. Explain the process to others by
running your simulation in Demo Mode, with graphs and reports updating
live as the simulation runs.
3. Understand Your Risks.
The result of a simulation is a look at a whole range of possible
outcomes, including the probabilities they will occur. Graph your
results with histograms, Scatter Plots, cumulative curves, Box Plots,
and more. Identify critical factors with Tornado charts and sensitivity
analysis. Paste results into Excel, Word, or PowerPoint, or place them
in the @RISK Library for other @RISK users. You can even save results
and charts right inside your Excel workbook.
Clear, Easy-to-Understand Results
@RISK provides a wide range of graphs for interpreting and presenting
your results to others. Histograms and cumulative curves show the
probability of different outcomes occurring. Use overlay graphs to
compare multiple results, and summary graphs and Box Plots to see risk
and trends over time or over ranges. Right-click menus and handy
toolbars make navigation a snap. All graphs are fully
customizable—including titles, axes, scaling, colors, and more—and
ready for export to Excel, Word, or PowerPoint. You can watch results
graphs pop up as you browse through cells in your spreadsheet.
@RISK provides you with sensitivity and scenario analyses to determine
the critical factors in your models. Use sensitivity analysis to rank
the distribution functions in your model according to the impact they
have on your outputs. See the results clearly with an easy-to-interpret
Tornado diagram, or uncover relationships with Scatter Plots.
Sensitivity analysis pre-screens all inputs based on their precedence
in formulas to outputs in your model, thus reducing irrelevant data. In
addition, you can use @RISK’s Make Input function to select a formula
whose value will be treated as an @RISK input for sensitivity analysis.
In this way, multiple distributions can be combined into a single
input, streamlining your sensitivity reports.
All simulation results for both outputs and inputs are summarized—with
thumbnail graphs—in the dashboard-style @RISK Results Summary window.
Simulation results may be saved directly in your Excel workbook, and
also placed in the @RISK Library to for sharing with other @RISK users.
Excel Ease of Use
@RISK is a true add-in to
Microsoft Excel, integrating completely with your spreadsheet. Browse,
define, analyze—while never leaving Excel. All @RISK functions are true
Excel functions, and behave exactly as native Excel functions do. @RISK
windows are all linked directly to cells in your spreadsheet, so
changes in one place are carried out in the other. @RISK graphs point
to their cells via callout windows. Drag-and-drop ease,
context-sensitive right-click menus, and the @RISK toolbar make
learning and navigating @RISK a snap.
Three Editions to Meet Your Needs
@RISK for Six Sigma
@RISK can also be used in
Six Sigma and quality analysis to improve processes, reduce
variability, and enhance the quality of products and services, and save
money. @RISK includes a range of Six Sigma statistics, functions, and
reports. With these tools, you can identify, measure, and root out the
causes of variability in your production and service processes and
designs.
@RISK Professional
Designed for professional-grade problems in any industry, @RISK
Professional is perfect for most commercial uses. It provides a balance
of advanced analysis and point-and-click ease of use, and includes:
- Integration with Microsoft Project: Perform risk
analysis and Monte Carlo simulation on your Microsoft Project schedules
using the more flexible @RISK for Excel interface. @RISK imports your
Project schedules into Excel so that you can use all of Excel’s
formulas, and @RISK’s features, on your Project models. Excel becomes a
front-end for your Microsoft Project schedule, linking directly to the
underlying .MPP(X) file. Changes made in either Project or Excel are
reflected in the other. When it’s time to run your Monte Carlo
simulation, Microsoft Project’s scheduling engine is used for the
calculations, ensuring accuracy.
- Integrated distribution fitting with BestFit® : Defines distribution functions for you based on historical or industry data.
- @RISK Library: A SQL database for storing and sharing
with others @RISK distribution functions, model components, and
simulation results.
- Excel Developer Kit (XDK): Automate and customize
@RISK for Excel through a complete library of commands and functions
that let you control every aspect of @RISK in your spreadsheet. Add
@RISK for Excel to any custom application.
- Stress Analysis: Lets you control the range that is
sampled from a distribution function, enabling you to see how different
scenarios affect your bottom line without changing your model.
- Advanced Sensitivity Analysis: Lets you see how changes in any input—distributions or regular values—affect simulation results.
- @RISK Goal Seek: Uses multiple simulations to find an input value that achieves a target simulation result you specify.
@RISK Industrial
Designed for your largest, most complex models, @RISK Industrial includes everything in @RISK Professional, plus the following:
- RISKOptimizer: Combines Monte Carlo simulation with
sophisticated optimization techniques to find the best combination of
factors that lead to a desired result under uncertain conditions. Use
RISKOptimizer for resource allocation, scheduling, investment, route
planning, and other types of tricky problems where you need to
determine the best combination of inputs to maximize a return, minimize
a cost, or achieve a specific target. RISKOptimizer uses genetic
algorithms and Optquest solving methods so you’ll be sure to have the
right engine for any type of problem.
- Simulation of Time-series Forecasts: @RISK offers a
set of functions for simulating time series processes, or values that
change over time. Any future projection of time series values has
inherent uncertainty, and @RISK lets you account for that uncertainty
by looking at the whole range of possible time series projections in
your model. This is particularly useful in financial modeling and
portfolio simulation. There are functions available for 17 different
statistical time series models, including ARMA, GBM, GARCH, and others.
These functions are entered as array functions in Excel. @RISK also
provides new windows for fitting historical time series data to these
new functions. The results can be animated to show the behavior of your
time series during simulation. All this is integrated into the existing
@RISK interface.
- Full Multi-CPU support: Speed up simulations with
parallel processing by using all multi-core processors and available
CPUs within a single machine.
|
@RISK Industrial
|
@RISK Pro
|
@RISK Standard
|
Advanced Simulation Engine
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Support for 2 CPUs or processor cores
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Over 40 Built-in Distribution Functions
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Integrated Distribution Gallery
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Insert Function Command
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Compound and Six Sigma functions
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Variety of Result Graphs and Charts
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Live Updating During Simulation
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Correlation of Inputs
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Freehand Distribution Artist
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Integrated Data Fitting
|
X
|
X
|
|
@RISK Library
|
X
|
X
|
|
Excel Developer Kit (XDK)
|
X
|
X
|
|
Stress Analysis
|
X
|
X
|
|
Advanced Sensitivity Analysis
|
X
|
X
|
|
@RISK Goal Seek
|
X
|
X
|
|
Advanced @RISKAccelerator
|
X
|
|
|
RISKOptimizer
|
X
|
|
|
- Optimization under uncertainty
|
X
|
|
|
- Ranges for adjustable cells and constraints
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
- Convergence monitoring and genetic operators
|
X
|
|
|
- Original, Best, Last model updating
|
X
|
|
|
Part of the DecisionTools Suite
@RISK is available by itself
or as part of the DecisionTools Suite, Palisade’s complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit. The DecisionTools Suite includes @RISK,
which adds risk analysis to Excel using Monte Carlo simulation,
BigPicture for mindmapping and data exploration, PrecisonTree for
visual decision tree analysis, TopRank for what-if analysis,
NeuralTools and StatTools for data analysis, and more. @RISK is fully
compatible with all DecisionTools programs and can be combined with
them for greater insight and analysis. For example:
@RISK and TopRank
The focus of an @RISK analysis can be narrowed using TopRank.
Especially with large models, this saves time and improves accuracy of
your @RISK analysis. @RISK functions can also be used by TopRank to
represent a wider range of values than TopRank’s standard functions.
@RISK and PrecisionTree
In addition, @RISK can be combined with PrecisionTree to represent
uncertain chance events and payoffs in decision tree models. This
enhances the accuracy of decision tree models by considering wider
ranges of values for chance events instead of a few limited, discrete
options.
@RISK then StatTools
@RISK results can be run through a StatTools analysis to assess
confidence intervals. @RISK can also be applied to results from a
StatTools time-series forecast to simulate possible outcomes with more
precision.
Save Over 50%
When you buy the DecisionTools Suite, you save over 50% versus buying
all components individually. The best analyses at a great price–with
the DecisionTools Suite.
Licensing and Training
@RISK is available
through a variety of licensing options, including corporate, network,
and academic licenses. Training, consulting, and books can be bundled
with your software to ensure you and your staff get the most out of
your investment.
100% Excel
@RISK simulations are
calculated 100% within Excel, supported by Palisade sampling and
statistics proven in over twenty years of use. Palisade does not
attempt to rewrite Excel in an external recalculator to gain speed. A
single recalculation from an unsupported or poorly reproduced macro or
function can dramatically change your results. Where will it occur, and
when? Palisade harnesses the power of multiple CPUs and multi-core
processors to give you the fastest calculations. Correct results-and
fast-using @RISK!
System Technical Requirements
Compatibility: @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software is compatible
with all 32-bit and 64-bit versions of Microsoft Windows XP through 10,
Excel 2007 through 2013, and Project 2007 through 2013.
64-bit Compatible: 64-bit technology enables Excel and DecisionTools
software to access much more computer memory than ever before. This
allows for vastly larger models and greater computational power.
© Copyright 2015 Palisade Corporation.
|
|
